Swift, on the other hand, just wrapped her first headlining tour last month and opened for Urban as recently as this summer.

"Taylor's definitely the newcomer on the touring scene, compared to the guys in the group," says David Ross, who publishes trade magazine Music Row. "However, when you add that to the record sales she's experienced this year and all the media attention she's getting, you'd have to say she's a viable candidate."

For her part, Swift is taking the speculation calmly at least more calmly than she did the news of her nomination, which she celebrated by jumping on her mother's bed. Noting that she has opened for every other act in the category, she says, "I just can't believe I get to sit in the front row this year!"